Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals1
- Evgenii DadonovAssists2
- Evgenii DadonovPoints2
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists3
- Owen PowerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:49Alex Tuch Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (3)2–4
- P317:48Tyler Seguin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (2), Mavrik Bourque (1)2–3
- P315:24Thomas Harley Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (3), Evgenii Dadonov (1)1–3
- P34:17Tage Thompson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (4), Alex Tuch (6)0–3
- P213:44Ryan McLeod Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (5), Owen Power (3)0–2
- P212:21Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Batted, assists: Beck Malenstyn (1), Owen Power (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:21Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Batted, assists: Beck Malenstyn (1), Owen Power (2)DAL 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 45% → 66% +21BUF 45% → 66%+21 pts
- P213:44Ryan McLeod Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (5), Owen Power (3)DAL 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 66% → 83% +17BUF 66% → 83%+17 pts
- P34:17Tage Thompson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Owen Power (4), Alex Tuch (6)DAL 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 91% → 98% +7BUF 91% → 98%+7 pts
- P315:24Thomas Harley Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (3), Evgenii Dadonov (1)DAL 1 – 3 BUF · DAL <1% → <1% +0DAL <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P317:48Tyler Seguin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (2), Mavrik Bourque (1)DAL 2 – 3 BUF · DAL <1% → 3% +3DAL <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 58%
- ML DAL -150 / BUF +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 54.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -138
- BUF +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 2.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +5 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +29 Elo | DAL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 1st of 321.5 | Goals allowed | 3.725th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.5 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 47.0%26th of 32 |
| 1st of 3295.0% | Save percentage | 88.6%19th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.