Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Blackhawks- Lukas ReichelAssists2
- Lukas ReichelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:34Ryan McLeod Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (2)4–2
- P218:37JJ Peterka Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (2), Owen Power (1)3–2
- P212:48Craig Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (2), Connor Murphy (1)2–2
- P26:28Craig Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (1), Seth Jones (5)2–1
- P111:31Beck Malenstyn Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Connor Clifton (2), Peyton Krebs (2)2–0
- P18:39Tage Thompson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (2), Alex Tuch (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:39Tage Thompson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (2), Alex Tuch (5)BUF 1 – 0 CHI · BUF 57% → 71% +15BUF 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P111:31Beck Malenstyn Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Connor Clifton (2), Peyton Krebs (2)BUF 2 – 0 CHI · BUF 71% → 83% +12BUF 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P26:28Craig Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (1), Seth Jones (5)BUF 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 13% → 27% +13CHI 13% → 27%+13 pts
- P212:48Craig Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (2), Connor Murphy (1)BUF 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 25% → 45% +20CHI 25% → 45%+20 pts
- P218:37JJ Peterka Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (2), Owen Power (1)BUF 3 – 2 CHI · BUF 54% → 76% +22BUF 54% → 76%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 57%
- ML BUF -145 / CHI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- BUF: Elo 57.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -133
- CHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.5 – 3.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −16 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +51 Elo | BUF 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.0 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 46.8%25th of 32 |
| 26th of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 91.8%7th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.