Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints3
Red Wings- Andrew CoppGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists2
- Andrew CoppPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:18Leon Draisaitl Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (6), Connor McDavid (7)3–2
- P310:47Evan Bouchard Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (4), Mattias Ekholm (5)2–2
- P29:28Andrew Copp Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Petry (1), Patrick Kane (5)1–2
- P28:46Leon Draisaitl Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (6), Evan Bouchard (3)1–1
- P13:28J.T. Compher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (4), Andrew Copp (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:28J.T. Compher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (4), Andrew Copp (2)EDM 0 – 1 DET · DET 30% → 44% +14DET 30% → 44%+14 pts
- P28:46Leon Draisaitl Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (6), Evan Bouchard (3)EDM 1 – 1 DET · EDM 46% → 65% +20EDM 46% → 65%+20 pts
- P29:28Andrew Copp Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Petry (1), Patrick Kane (5)EDM 1 – 2 DET · DET 35% → 55% +20DET 35% → 55%+20 pts
- P310:47Evan Bouchard Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (4), Mattias Ekholm (5)EDM 2 – 2 DET · EDM 24% → 59% +35EDM 24% → 59%+35 pts
- OT0:18Leon Draisaitl Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (6), Connor McDavid (7)EDM 3 – 2 DET · EDM 56% → 93% +37EDM 56% → 93%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 71%
- ML EDM -280 / DET +230
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 52.7%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- EDM -243
- DET +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.9 – 2.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +6 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +19 Elo | EDM 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.9% | Shot share | 40.0%32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 91.7%6th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.