Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Moritz SeiderPoints2
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:12Jack Quinn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P215:54Bowen Byram Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (5), Dylan Cozens (3)3–4
- P211:02Lucas Raymond Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P23:51Michael Rasmussen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Moritz Seider (4), Simon Edvinsson (3)2–3
- P23:20Tage Thompson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (5)1–3
- P114:43Alex DeBrincat Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (3), Lucas Raymond (7)1–2
- P112:00Tage Thompson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (3), Rasmus Dahlin (4)0–2
- P14:04Jason Zucker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (4), Rasmus Dahlin (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:04Jason Zucker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (4), Rasmus Dahlin (3)DET 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 57% → 71% +14BUF 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P23:20Tage Thompson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (5)DET 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 73% → 86% +13BUF 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P23:51Michael Rasmussen Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Moritz Seider (4), Simon Edvinsson (3)DET 2 – 3 BUF · DET 14% → 27% +13DET 14% → 27%+13 pts
- P211:02Lucas Raymond Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 3 – 3 BUF · DET 26% → 45% +19DET 26% → 45%+19 pts
- P215:54Bowen Byram Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (5), Dylan Cozens (3)DET 3 – 4 BUF · BUF 55% → 75% +21BUF 55% → 75%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 57%
- ML DET +125 / BUF -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 53.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +26 Elo | BUF 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3240.3% | Shot share | 46.8%24th of 32 |
| 7th of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 89.2%20th of 32 |
| 9th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–1 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.