New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Dougie HamiltonAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints2
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:48Michael Rasmussen Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Simon Edvinsson (2)3–5
- P316:28Patrick Kane Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (6), Alex DeBrincat (3)3–4
- P311:41Nico Hischier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (7), Dougie Hamilton (3)3–3
- P39:46Dylan Larkin Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (3), Lucas Raymond (5)2–3
- P24:59Erik Haula Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Timo Meier (6), Luke Hughes (1)2–2
- P118:34Alex DeBrincat Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P118:09Christian Fischer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (1)1–1
- P112:11Nico Hischier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:34Alex DeBrincat Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 2 DET · DET 40% → 58% +17DET 40% → 58%+17 pts
- P24:59Erik Haula Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Timo Meier (6), Luke Hughes (1)NJ 2 – 2 DET · NJ 40% → 59% +19NJ 40% → 59%+19 pts
- P39:46Dylan Larkin Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (3), Lucas Raymond (5)NJ 2 – 3 DET · DET 45% → 78% +33DET 45% → 78%+33 pts
- P311:41Nico Hischier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (7), Dougie Hamilton (3)NJ 3 – 3 DET · NJ 19% → 54% +35NJ 19% → 54%+35 pts
- P316:28Patrick Kane Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (6), Alex DeBrincat (3)NJ 3 – 4 DET · DET 47% → 92% +45DET 47% → 92%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 61%
- ML NJ -175 / DET +150
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 43.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- NJ -159
- DET +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.6 – 2.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +8 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +46 Elo | DET 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.526th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 41.6%32nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 92.0%6th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–221st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.