Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals2
- Tomas TatarAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:45Stefan Noesen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (6), Dougie Hamilton (2)8–5
- P39:19
J.J. Moser Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (4)8–4 - P35:48Jake Guentzel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (5)7–4
- P35:24Timo Meier Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (3), Simon Nemec (1)6–4
- P32:56Nathan Bastian Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (1)6–3
- P217:28Victor Hedman Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (3), J.J. Moser (4)6–2
- P215:53Brandon Hagel Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (2), Anthony Cirelli (7)5–2
- P213:01Brandon Hagel Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Geekie (1), Anthony Cirelli (6)4–2
- P29:27Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (5), Nick Perbix (2)3–2
- P27:34Victor Hedman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (3), Jake Guentzel (5)2–2
- P20:51Timo Meier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (5)1–2
- P114:09Brayden Point Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (4), Nikita Kucherov (4)1–1
- P111:02Jack Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (7), Ondrej Palat (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:09Brayden Point Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (4), Nikita Kucherov (4)TB 1 – 1 NJ · TB 28% → 43% +15TB 28% → 43%+15 pts
- P20:51Timo Meier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (5)TB 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 56% → 73% +17NJ 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P27:34Victor Hedman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.J. Moser (3), Jake Guentzel (5)TB 2 – 2 NJ · TB 26% → 44% +18TB 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P29:27Brandon Hagel Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (5), Nick Perbix (2)TB 3 – 2 NJ · TB 44% → 64% +20TB 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P213:01Brandon Hagel Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Geekie (1), Anthony Cirelli (6)TB 4 – 2 NJ · TB 66% → 83% +17TB 66% → 83%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 58%
- ML TB +130 / NJ -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 55.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NJ -138
- TB +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.5 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −5 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +40 Elo | NJ 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.415th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.57th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.98th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 51.8%11th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 91.4%9th of 32 |
| 21st of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–0 NJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.