Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals2
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Tom WilsonPoints3
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Timo MeierAssists3
- Nico HischierPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:00Tom Wilson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (4), Jakob Chychrun (2)6–5
- P312:28Dougie Hamilton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (6), Timo Meier (5)5–5
- P33:39Dawson Mercer Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (3), Timo Meier (4)5–4
- P212:33Dylan Strome Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (2)5–3
- P29:15Andrew Mangiapane Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (1), Aliaksei Protas (2)4–3
- P20:44Nico Hischier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (3)3–3
- P20:34Nico Hischier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (6)3–2
- P114:18Alex Ovechkin Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (4), Dylan Strome (3)3–1
- P110:14Connor McMichael Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (1), Jakob Chychrun (1)2–1
- P16:01Tom Wilson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (3)1–1
- P14:45Erik Haula Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (5), Tomas Tatar (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:44Nico Hischier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (3)WSH 3 – 3 NJ · NJ 41% → 59% +18NJ 41% → 59%+18 pts
- P29:15Andrew Mangiapane Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (1), Aliaksei Protas (2)WSH 4 – 3 NJ · WSH 42% → 62% +20WSH 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P33:39Dawson Mercer Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (3), Timo Meier (4)WSH 5 – 4 NJ · NJ 11% → 29% +18NJ 11% → 29%+18 pts
- P312:28Dougie Hamilton Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (6), Timo Meier (5)WSH 5 – 5 NJ · NJ 18% → 54% +36NJ 18% → 54%+36 pts
- OT4:00Tom Wilson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (4), Jakob Chychrun (2)WSH 6 – 5 NJ · WSH 49% → >99% +51WSH 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 61%
- ML WSH +145 / NJ -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- NJ: Elo 57.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NJ -156
- WSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.6 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +15 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +54 Elo | NJ 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 61.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.04th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.17th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 52.9%10th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 92.9%6th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 3–2 NJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.