Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists1
- Evan BouchardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:00Mattias Ekholm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (3)0–4
- P30:16Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (1), Mattias Ekholm (4)0–3
- P217:35Evan Bouchard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (2), Vasily Podkolzin (1)0–2
- P213:00Leon Draisaitl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (1), Evan Bouchard (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:00Leon Draisaitl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (1), Evan Bouchard (2)PIT 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 62% → 80% +18EDM 62% → 80%+18 pts
- P217:35Evan Bouchard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (2), Vasily Podkolzin (1)PIT 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 81% → 93% +12EDM 81% → 93%+12 pts
- P30:16Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (1), Mattias Ekholm (4)PIT 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 94% → 98% +5EDM 94% → 98%+5 pts
- P37:00Mattias Ekholm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (3)PIT 0 – 4 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 67%
- ML PIT +195 / EDM -230
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- EDM: Elo 61.0%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -206
- PIT +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.7 – 3.8 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −3 | PIT: Joel Blomqvist: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +78 Elo | EDM 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 65.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.031st of 32 |
| 31st of 324.4 | Goals allowed | 3.927th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −1.930th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 55.4%3rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 86.2%30th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–3 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–5 | 1–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 1–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 0–2 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.