New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders
Blue Jackets- Damon SeversonGoals1
- Sean KuralyAssists1
- Damon SeversonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:57Justin Danforth Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (6), Ivan Provorov (3)0–2
- P35:43Damon Severson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (2), Kevin Labanc (5)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P35:43Damon Severson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (2), Kevin Labanc (5)NYI 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 48% → 76% +28CBJ 48% → 76%+28 pts
- P317:57Justin Danforth Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (6), Ivan Provorov (3)NYI 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 97% → >99% +3CBJ 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 54%
- ML NYI -130 / CBJ +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- NYI: Elo 41.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -119
- CBJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.4 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | 0 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +57 Elo | CBJ 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 4.14th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.06th of 32 |
| 4th of 3255.5% | Shot share | 50.5%15th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.1%20th of 32 |
| 10th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–7 | 7–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 7–1 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | — |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–0 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.