Columbus Blue Jackets at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Zachary Aston-ReeseGoals1
- Jack JohnsonAssists1
- Zachary Aston-ReesePoints1
Predators- Cole SmithGoals1
- Brady SkjeiAssists2
- Brady SkjeiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:44Jonathan Marchessault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (3)3–4
- P34:09Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (1)3–3
- P33:07Zach Werenski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (4), Sean Kuraly (1)3–2
- P30:26Cole Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (1), Brady Skjei (2)2–2
- P210:40Filip Forsberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (5)2–1
- P26:42Zachary Aston-Reese Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (2)2–0
- P23:53Kirill Marchenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (1), Jack Johnson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:53Kirill Marchenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (1), Jack Johnson (1)CBJ 1 – 0 NSH · CBJ 39% → 58% +19CBJ 39% → 58%+19 pts
- P30:26Cole Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (1), Brady Skjei (2)CBJ 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 33% → 58% +25NSH 33% → 58%+25 pts
- P33:07Zach Werenski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Labanc (4), Sean Kuraly (1)CBJ 3 – 2 NSH · CBJ 43% → 69% +27CBJ 43% → 69%+27 pts
- P34:09Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (1)CBJ 3 – 3 NSH · NSH 30% → 57% +27NSH 30% → 57%+27 pts
- OT1:44Jonathan Marchessault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (3)CBJ 3 – 4 NSH · NSH 53% → 95% +42NSH 53% → 95%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 64%
- ML CBJ +165 / NSH -195
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- NSH: Elo 55.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- NSH -175
- CBJ +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −3 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · NSH: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +41 Elo | NSH 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 324.0 | Goals scored | 2.429th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.626th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −1.129th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%15th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–429th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–1 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | — | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 0–2 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.