Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Brady SkjeiGoals1
- Cole SmithAssists1
- Brady SkjeiPoints1
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Connor MurphyAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:07Brady Skjei Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (1), Luke Evangelista (4)3–2
- P216:59Gustav Nyquist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (3), Cole Smith (1)2–2
- P213:41Filip Forsberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (2), Alexandre Carrier (2)1–2
- P25:14Connor Bedard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (4), Connor Murphy (3)0–2
- P12:55Craig Smith Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Lukas Reichel (3), Nolan Allan (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:55Craig Smith Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Lukas Reichel (3), Nolan Allan (1)NSH 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 38% → 53% +15CHI 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P25:14Connor Bedard Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (4), Connor Murphy (3)NSH 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 59% → 76% +17CHI 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P213:41Filip Forsberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (2), Alexandre Carrier (2)NSH 1 – 2 CHI · NSH 19% → 37% +18NSH 19% → 37%+18 pts
- P216:59Gustav Nyquist Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (3), Cole Smith (1)NSH 2 – 2 CHI · NSH 35% → 58% +23NSH 35% → 58%+23 pts
- P313:07Brady Skjei Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (1), Luke Evangelista (4)NSH 3 – 2 CHI · NSH 54% → 88% +34NSH 54% → 88%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 62%
- ML NSH -185 / CHI +155
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- NSH: Elo 56.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -166
- CHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.6 – 2.9 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +47 Elo | NSH 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.5 | Margin | −0.926th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.7% | Shot share | 50.1%17th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.4%16th of 32 |
| 29th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 4–0 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.