Vancouver Canucks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Conor GarlandPoints2
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Connor MurphyAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:04Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (1), Seth Jones (6)6–3
- P310:58Pius Suter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Brannstrom (1), Nils Aman (2)6–2
- P310:29Brock Boeser Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (3), Quinn Hughes (5)5–2
- P115:17Conor Garland Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (3), J.T. Miller (2)4–2
- P113:29Taylor Hall Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (2)3–2
- P110:46Danton Heinen Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Filip Hronek (2), Kiefer Sherwood (3)3–1
- P19:25Ryan Donato Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (1), Alex Vlasic (3)2–1
- P16:01J.T. Miller Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (4), Conor Garland (3)2–0
- P10:21Danton Heinen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (2), Kiefer Sherwood (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:21Danton Heinen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (2), Kiefer Sherwood (2)VAN 1 – 0 CHI · VAN 62% → 75% +13VAN 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P19:25Ryan Donato Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (1), Alex Vlasic (3)VAN 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 14% → 25% +11CHI 14% → 25%+11 pts
- P110:46Danton Heinen Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Filip Hronek (2), Kiefer Sherwood (3)VAN 3 – 1 CHI · VAN 75% → 86% +11VAN 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P113:29Taylor Hall Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (2)VAN 3 – 2 CHI · CHI 13% → 24% +11CHI 13% → 24%+11 pts
- P115:17Conor Garland Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (3), J.T. Miller (2)VAN 4 – 2 CHI · VAN 76% → 87% +11VAN 76% → 87%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 62%
- ML VAN -185 / CHI +155
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- VAN: Elo 59.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -166
- CHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.1 – 2.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +10 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +65 Elo | VAN 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.525th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.1%10th of 32 |
| 5th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 1–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–0 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.