Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Quinn HughesPoints2
Panthers- Jesper BoqvistGoals1
- Mackie SamoskevichAssists1
- Jesper BoqvistPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:09J.T. Miller Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (3), Brock Boeser (2)3–2
- P219:00Anton Lundell Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (2), Sam Reinhart (5)2–2
- P26:30Quinn Hughes Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (2), Nils Aman (1)2–1
- P111:53Jesper Boqvist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (1), Gustav Forsling (2)1–1
- P111:42Teddy Blueger Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (1), Jake DeBrusk (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:42Teddy Blueger Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (1), Jake DeBrusk (3)VAN 1 – 0 FLA · VAN 51% → 67% +16VAN 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P111:53Jesper Boqvist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (1), Gustav Forsling (2)VAN 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 33% → 49% +16FLA 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P26:30Quinn Hughes Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (2), Nils Aman (1)VAN 2 – 1 FLA · VAN 51% → 69% +19VAN 51% → 69%+19 pts
- P219:00Anton Lundell Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (2), Sam Reinhart (5)VAN 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 26% → 49% +23FLA 26% → 49%+23 pts
- OT2:09J.T. Miller Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (3), Brock Boeser (2)VAN 3 – 2 FLA · VAN 50% → 95% +45VAN 50% → 95%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 51%
- ML VAN -115 / FLA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 39.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VAN -104
- FLA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.8 – 2.7 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | 0 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +76 Elo | FLA 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.3 | Goals allowed | 3.620th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 48.1%23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3286.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%18th of 32 |
| 21st of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 2–0 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.