Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Tyler MyersAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints1
FlyersScoring summary
- P29:30Kiefer Sherwood Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (1)3–0
- P28:40Brock Boeser Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tyler Myers (1), Jake DeBrusk (4)2–0
- P116:09Nils Hoglander Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (2), Conor Garland (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:09Nils Hoglander Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (2), Conor Garland (2)VAN 1 – 0 PHI · VAN 56% → 72% +16VAN 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P28:40Brock Boeser Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tyler Myers (1), Jake DeBrusk (4)VAN 2 – 0 PHI · VAN 74% → 87% +14VAN 74% → 87%+14 pts
- P29:30Kiefer Sherwood Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (1)VAN 3 – 0 PHI · VAN 88% → 95% +8VAN 88% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 57%
- ML VAN -145 / PHI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 52.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- VAN -133
- PHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +16 Elo | VAN 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.317th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 4.530th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −1.328th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 51.6%12th of 32 |
| 20th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 85.5%29th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 0–3 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.