Florida Panthers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Mackie SamoskevichGoals1
- Dmitry KulikovAssists1
- Mackie SamoskevichPoints1
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Maxim TsyplakovAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:43Gustav Forsling Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P39:49Matthew Tkachuk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Boqvist (2), Anton Lundell (6)5–3
- P36:19Sam Bennett Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (4), Niko Mikkola (4)4–3
- P218:16Mackie Samoskevich Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (2), Spencer Knight (1)3–3
- P26:38Matthew Tkachuk Goal (1) Poke, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (5)2–3
- P113:27Sam Reinhart Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (2), Anton Lundell (5)1–3
- P111:41Brock Nelson Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (4), Kyle Palmieri (3)0–3
- P16:01Kyle Palmieri Goal (4) Poke, assists: Ryan Pulock (3), Maxim Tsyplakov (3)0–2
- P11:32Dennis Cholowski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:32Dennis Cholowski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (1)FLA 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 44% → 59% +15NYI 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P16:01Kyle Palmieri Goal (4) Poke, assists: Ryan Pulock (3), Maxim Tsyplakov (3)FLA 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 59% → 73% +14NYI 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P26:38Matthew Tkachuk Goal (1) Poke, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (5)FLA 2 – 3 NYI · FLA 19% → 35% +16FLA 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P218:16Mackie Samoskevich Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (2), Spencer Knight (1)FLA 3 – 3 NYI · FLA 30% → 54% +23FLA 30% → 54%+23 pts
- P36:19Sam Bennett Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (4), Niko Mikkola (4)FLA 4 – 3 NYI · FLA 53% → 80% +27FLA 53% → 80%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 56%
- ML FLA -140 / NYI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 55.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -128
- NYI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 2.6 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −24 | +2 | FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.59 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +35 Elo | FLA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 54.9%4th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 1–223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 1–2 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.