Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Jake MiddletonAssists3
- Jake MiddletonPoints3
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Scoring summary
- P216:05Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (3)5–1
- P213:58Mats Zuccarello Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (8), Jake Middleton (2)4–1
- P211:19Sam Bennett Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (4), Matthew Tkachuk (3)3–1
- P22:40Matt Boldy Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (3), Joel Eriksson Ek (1)3–0
- P112:02Marcus Johansson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (5), Jonas Brodin (3)2–0
- P111:40Marco Rossi Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (7), Jake Middleton (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:40Marco Rossi Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (7), Jake Middleton (1)MIN 1 – 0 FLA · MIN 42% → 58% +16MIN 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P112:02Marcus Johansson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (5), Jonas Brodin (3)MIN 2 – 0 FLA · MIN 58% → 73% +15MIN 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P22:40Matt Boldy Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (3), Joel Eriksson Ek (1)MIN 3 – 0 FLA · MIN 77% → 89% +11MIN 77% → 89%+11 pts
- P211:19Sam Bennett Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (4), Matthew Tkachuk (3)MIN 3 – 1 FLA · FLA 8% → 18% +11FLA 8% → 18%+11 pts
- P213:58Mats Zuccarello Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (8), Jake Middleton (2)MIN 4 – 1 FLA · MIN 83% → 94% +10MIN 83% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 59%
- ML MIN +135 / FLA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 61.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- FLA -143
- MIN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | 0 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +78 Elo | FLA 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.317th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 50.8%16th of 32 |
| 4th of 3293.5% | Save percentage | 89.4%17th of 32 |
| 4th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–2 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.