Vegas Golden Knights at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tanner PearsonGoals1
- Nicolas RoyAssists2
- Tanner PearsonPoints2
Panthers- Aaron EkbladAssists2
- Aaron EkbladPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:43Gustav Forsling Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (3), Sam Reinhart (7)3–4
- P312:43Eetu Luostarinen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (6), Aaron Ekblad (3)3–3
- P37:30Brett Howden Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none3–2
- P219:20Sam Bennett Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (3), Anton Lundell (4)2–2
- P214:15Keegan Kolesar Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tanner Pearson (2), Nicolas Roy (2)2–1
- P21:09Sam Reinhart Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (3), Aaron Ekblad (2)1–1
- P119:27Tanner Pearson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:15Keegan Kolesar Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tanner Pearson (2), Nicolas Roy (2)VGK 2 – 1 FLA · VGK 48% → 69% +21VGK 48% → 69%+21 pts
- P219:20Sam Bennett Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (3), Anton Lundell (4)VGK 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 28% → 52% +24FLA 28% → 52%+24 pts
- P37:30Brett Howden Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneVGK 3 – 2 FLA · VGK 49% → 78% +29VGK 49% → 78%+29 pts
- P312:43Eetu Luostarinen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (6), Aaron Ekblad (3)VGK 3 – 3 FLA · FLA 15% → 51% +36FLA 15% → 51%+36 pts
- OT4:43Gustav Forsling Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (3), Sam Reinhart (7)VGK 3 – 4 FLA · FLA 50% → >99% +50FLA 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 53%
- ML VGK +105 / FLA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 60.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -114
- VGK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.7 – 2.8 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | 0 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +76 Elo | FLA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.217th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.519th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 47.7%23rd of 32 |
| 27th of 3287.1% | Save percentage | 89.6%17th of 32 |
| 25th of 310–2 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 0–2 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.