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Florida Panthers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports, MSG

Away

Panthers

5-3-1

3–1

at

Home

Rangers

5-1-1

FLA 42%NYR 58%

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Madison Square Garden · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.

NYR favored FLA favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3NYR50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P26:59Sam Bennett Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Niko Mikkola (3), Dmitry Kulikov (1)3–1
  • P14:44Alexis Lafrenière Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Adam Fox (8), Artemi Panarin (8)2–1
  • P12:42Carter Verhaeghe Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (3)2–0
  • P10:44Anton Lundell Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (8), Eetu Luostarinen (1)1–0

Turning points

The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:44Anton Lundell Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (8), Eetu Luostarinen (1)FLA 1 – 0 NYR · FLA 42% → 57% +15
  2. P12:42Carter Verhaeghe Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (3)FLA 2 – 0 NYR · FLA 57% → 71% +14
  3. P14:44Alexis Lafrenière Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Adam Fox (8), Artemi Panarin (8)FLA 2 – 1 NYR · NYR 29% → 43% +14
  4. P26:59Sam Bennett Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Niko Mikkola (3), Dmitry Kulikov (1)FLA 3 – 1 NYR · FLA 63% → 80% +16

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Rangers 58%

LeanMiss
FLA 42%NYR 58%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
NYR 58%
ML FLA +130 / NYR -150
Pre-line forecast
NYR 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYR 58%
Ratings vs. market
+0.3 pts
NYR: Elo 58.3%, market 58.0%
Fair odds
NYR -138
FLA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 2.5 – 3.0 NYR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLANYRWhy
Team rating15481566Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−2+3FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYR +58 EloNYR 58.3%
Market-implied ratingsNYR 59.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYR 59.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYR 58.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and New York Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatNYR
19th of 323.0Goals scored5.21st of 32
25th of 323.6Goals allowed2.03rd of 32
24th of 32−0.6Margin+3.21st of 32
15th of 3251.1%Shot share54.4%6th of 32
24th of 3288.3%Save percentage93.3%4th of 32
13th of 322–2Road vs home1–113th of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersRangers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLANYR
Puck line3–55–1
Last 103–55–1
Favorite1–54–1
Underdog2–01–0
Overs–unders6–23–3
Overs–unders, last 106–23–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 6–3 NYR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.