New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Braden SchneiderGoals1
- Will CuylleAssists2
- Braden SchneiderPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals2
- Mike MathesonAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:19Kaapo Kakko Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (5), Victor Mancini (2)7–2
- P315:41Filip Chytil Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (4), Sam Carrick (1)6–2
- P28:57Braden Schneider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (2), Kaapo Kakko (4)5–2
- P25:35Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mike Matheson (5), Kirby Dach (2)4–2
- P112:52Nick Suzuki Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Josh Anderson (2), David Savard (1)4–1
- P111:05Filip Chytil Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Reilly Smith (4), Kaapo Kakko (3)4–0
- P16:40Reilly Smith Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none3–0
- P12:05Jonny Brodzinski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Edstrom (1), Braden Schneider (1)2–0
- P10:54Mika Zibanejad Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (7), Artemi Panarin (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:54Mika Zibanejad Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (7), Artemi Panarin (7)NYR 1 – 0 MTL · NYR 68% → 80% +12NYR 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P12:05Jonny Brodzinski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Edstrom (1), Braden Schneider (1)NYR 2 – 0 MTL · NYR 80% → 89% +9NYR 80% → 89%+9 pts
- P16:40Reilly Smith Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYR 3 – 0 MTL · NYR 89% → 95% +6NYR 89% → 95%+6 pts
- P25:35Nick Suzuki Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mike Matheson (5), Kirby Dach (2)NYR 4 – 2 MTL · MTL 4% → 9% +6MTL 4% → 9%+6 pts
- P28:57Braden Schneider Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (2), Kaapo Kakko (4)NYR 5 – 2 MTL · NYR 91% → 97% +6NYR 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 68%
- ML NYR -240 / MTL +200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- NYR: Elo 60.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- NYR -212
- MTL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.8 – 2.7 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +75 Elo | NYR 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 65.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.8 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.0 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+2.8 | Margin | −0.826th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 43.8%30th of 32 |
| 4th of 3293.5% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–1 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.