Florida Panthers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Matthew TkachukAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
RangersScoring summary
- P318:41Sam Bennett Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (11)3–0
- P316:12Carter Verhaeghe Goal (7) , assists: none2–0
- P116:26Matthew Tkachuk Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (6), Carter Verhaeghe (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:26Matthew Tkachuk Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (6), Carter Verhaeghe (6)FLA 1 – 0 NYR · FLA 46% → 63% +17FLA 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P316:12Carter Verhaeghe Goal (7) , assists: noneFLA 2 – 0 NYR · FLA 92% → >99% +8FLA 92% → >99%+8 pts
- P318:41Sam Bennett Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (11)FLA 3 – 0 NYR · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 54%
- Fair odds
- NYR -121
- FLA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +29 Elo | NYR 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 29–112nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 2–1 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.