New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Kyle PalmieriAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Jonas SiegenthalerAssists1
- Curtis LazarPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:09Bo Horvat Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (3), Ryan Pulock (2)4–3
- P318:31Jesper Bratt Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none3–3
- P211:28Kyle Palmieri Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Romanov (2), Brock Nelson (2)3–2
- P25:31Curtis Lazar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (2), Jonas Siegenthaler (2)2–2
- P114:03Anders Lee Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (5), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2)2–1
- P111:36Nico Hischier Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (9), Brenden Dillon (3)1–1
- P11:23Brock Nelson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (4), Kyle Palmieri (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:03Anders Lee Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (5), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2)NYI 2 – 1 NJ · NYI 48% → 64% +16NYI 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P25:31Curtis Lazar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (2), Jonas Siegenthaler (2)NYI 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 33% → 52% +19NJ 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P211:28Kyle Palmieri Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Romanov (2), Brock Nelson (2)NYI 3 – 2 NJ · NYI 49% → 69% +20NYI 49% → 69%+20 pts
- P318:31Jesper Bratt Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneNYI 3 – 3 NJ · NJ 1% → 50% +49NJ 1% → 50%+49 pts
- OT1:09Bo Horvat Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (3), Ryan Pulock (2)NYI 4 – 3 NJ · NYI 49% → 92% +43NYI 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 52%
- ML NYI +100 / NJ -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- NJ: Elo 49.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -109
- NYI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.2 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −11 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +3 Elo | NYI 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.510th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.316th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.214th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.7% | Shot share | 53.0%7th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%23rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 1–5 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–3 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.