Edmonton Oilers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Darnell NurseAssists1
- Corey PerryPoints1
Blue Jackets- Sean MonahanGoals2
- Cole SillingerAssists2
- Cole SillingerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:33Mattias Ekholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (3), Corey Perry (1)1–6
- P316:39Sean Monahan Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (5), Kirill Marchenko (7)0–6
- P315:15Mikael Pyyhtia Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (2), Cole Sillinger (5)0–5
- P27:04Mathieu Olivier Goal (4) Backhand, assists: James van Riemsdyk (1)0–4
- P114:32Cole Sillinger Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P110:44Adam Fantilli Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (4)0–2
- P12:18Sean Monahan Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (6), Zach Werenski (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:18Sean Monahan Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (6), Zach Werenski (5)EDM 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 31% → 46% +14CBJ 31% → 46%+14 pts
- P110:44Adam Fantilli Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (4)EDM 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 48% → 64% +16CBJ 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P114:32Cole Sillinger Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 66% → 80% +14CBJ 66% → 80%+14 pts
- P27:04Mathieu Olivier Goal (4) Backhand, assists: James van Riemsdyk (1)EDM 0 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 87% → 95% +8CBJ 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P315:15Mikael Pyyhtia Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (2), Cole Sillinger (5)EDM 0 – 5 CBJ · CBJ >99% → >99% +0CBJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 69%
- ML EDM -250 / CBJ +210
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 51.9%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- EDM -221
- CBJ +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.8 – 2.7 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −3 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +13 Elo | EDM 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.95th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.9% | Shot share | 51.5%11th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 87.8%29th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–7 | 6–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 6–1 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | — |
| Underdog | — | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–7 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 1–1 CBJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.