Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists2
- Frank VatranoPoints2
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists1
- Mathew BarzalPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:00Frank Vatrano Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (1)3–1
- P35:31Mathew Barzal Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (2), Noah Dobson (6)2–1
- P214:07Troy Terry Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (5), Olen Zellweger (2)2–0
- P114:05Leo Carlsson Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Frank Vatrano (3), Mason McTavish (4)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:05Leo Carlsson Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Frank Vatrano (3), Mason McTavish (4)ANA 1 – 0 NYI · ANA 34% → 50% +16ANA 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P214:07Troy Terry Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (5), Olen Zellweger (2)ANA 2 – 0 NYI · ANA 60% → 79% +19ANA 60% → 79%+19 pts
- P35:31Mathew Barzal Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (2), Noah Dobson (6)ANA 2 – 1 NYI · NYI 10% → 30% +20NYI 10% → 30%+20 pts
- P319:00Frank Vatrano Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (1)ANA 3 – 1 NYI · ANA >99% → >99% +0ANA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 68%
- ML ANA +200 / NYI -240
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NYI: Elo 61.1%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- NYI -212
- ANA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.2 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | 0 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +78 Elo | NYI 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 67.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.420th of 32 |
| 29th of 3244.7% | Shot share | 54.2%4th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 89.8%17th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 1–328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 0–2 NYI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.