Anaheim Ducks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Ryan StromeGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists1
- Ryan StromePoints2
Devils- Stefan NoesenGoals2
- Dawson MercerAssists2
- Stefan NoesenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:01Erik Haula Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (2), Brenden Dillon (4)2–6
- P313:10Ryan Strome Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (2), Cutter Gauthier (3)2–5
- P31:50Nico Hischier Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (5)1–5
- P218:49Paul Cotter Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (3), Jonas Siegenthaler (4)1–4
- P217:23Stefan Noesen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (10), Dougie Hamilton (4)1–3
- P24:42Stefan Noesen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (5), Jonas Siegenthaler (3)1–2
- P21:16Jack Hughes Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Timo Meier (7), Dawson Mercer (2)1–1
- P14:47Brock McGinn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (3), Ryan Strome (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:47Brock McGinn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (3), Ryan Strome (2)ANA 1 – 0 NJ · ANA 27% → 41% +14ANA 27% → 41%+14 pts
- P21:16Jack Hughes Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Timo Meier (7), Dawson Mercer (2)ANA 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 53% → 70% +17NJ 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P24:42Stefan Noesen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (5), Jonas Siegenthaler (3)ANA 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 69% → 83% +14NJ 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P217:23Stefan Noesen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (10), Dougie Hamilton (4)ANA 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 84% → 94% +10NJ 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P218:49Paul Cotter Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (3), Jonas Siegenthaler (4)ANA 1 – 4 NJ · NJ 95% → 99% +4NJ 95% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 74%
- ML ANA +270 / NJ -340
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 66.3%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -286
- ANA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.5 – 4.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +9 | ANA: James Reimer: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +117 Elo | NJ 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 70.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.511th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 29th of 3244.9% | Shot share | 53.1%6th of 32 |
| 4th of 3293.2% | Save percentage | 88.6%23rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 1–431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–2 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–0 NJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.