San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Jack ThompsonAssists1
- Jack ThompsonPoints1
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Cutter GauthierAssists2
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:09Alex Killorn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (1)1–3
- P35:36Leo Carlsson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cutter Gauthier (2), Mason McTavish (3)1–2
- P34:55Mikael Granlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (4), Jack Thompson (1)1–1
- P26:56Troy Terry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (1), Cutter Gauthier (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:56Troy Terry Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (1), Cutter Gauthier (1)SJ 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 57% → 74% +18ANA 57% → 74%+18 pts
- P34:55Mikael Granlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (4), Jack Thompson (1)SJ 1 – 1 ANA · SJ 20% → 46% +25SJ 20% → 46%+25 pts
- P35:36Leo Carlsson Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cutter Gauthier (2), Mason McTavish (3)SJ 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 54% → 80% +26ANA 54% → 80%+26 pts
- P318:09Alex Killorn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (1)SJ 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 98% → >99% +2ANA 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 59%
- ML SJ +135 / ANA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- ANA: Elo 62.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- ANA -143
- SJ +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +4 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +90 Elo | ANA 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.0 | Goals scored | 2.427th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−2.3 | Margin | −0.623rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3244.7% | Shot share | 40.4%32nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 92.6%5th of 32 |
| 29th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | — | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–4 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.