Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Mikey AndersonGoals1
- Mikey AndersonAssists1
- Mikey AndersonPoints2
Ducks- Ryan StromeGoals1
- Frank VatranoAssists1
- Ryan StromePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:24Mikey Anderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (3)4–1
- P318:53Kevin Fiala Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (2), Vladislav Gavrikov (3)3–1
- P318:16Ryan Strome Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Troy Terry (1), Frank Vatrano (2)2–1
- P38:58Alex Laferriere Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P33:06Adrian Kempe Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (5), Mikey Anderson (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:06Adrian Kempe Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (5), Mikey Anderson (2)LA 1 – 0 ANA · LA 57% → 80% +24LA 57% → 80%+24 pts
- P38:58Alex Laferriere Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 2 – 0 ANA · LA 84% → 97% +13LA 84% → 97%+13 pts
- P318:16Ryan Strome Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Troy Terry (1), Frank Vatrano (2)LA 2 – 1 ANA · ANA <1% → 1% +1ANA <1% → 1%+1 pts
- P318:53Kevin Fiala Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (2), Vladislav Gavrikov (3)LA 3 – 1 ANA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:24Mikey Anderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (3)LA 4 – 1 ANA · LA >99% → 100% +0LA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 62%
- ML LA -185 / ANA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- LA: Elo 54.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -166
- ANA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.6 – 2.9 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +6 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +33 Elo | LA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 42.9%32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 92.2%6th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 3–1 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.