Anaheim Ducks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Olen ZellwegerGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Olen ZellwegerPoints1
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Will CuyllePoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:38Olen Zellweger Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (2), Troy Terry (2)1–2
- P311:53Will Cuylle Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Kaapo Kakko (5), Filip Chytil (3)0–2
- P34:13Ryan Lindgren Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (4), Artemi Panarin (9)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P34:13Ryan Lindgren Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (4), Artemi Panarin (9)ANA 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 63% → 85% +22NYR 63% → 85%+22 pts
- P311:53Will Cuylle Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Kaapo Kakko (5), Filip Chytil (3)ANA 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 89% → 99% +10NYR 89% → 99%+10 pts
- P312:38Olen Zellweger Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (2), Troy Terry (2)ANA 1 – 2 NYR · ANA 1% → 10% +9ANA 1% → 10%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 73%
- ML ANA +260 / NYR -320
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 70.9%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -274
- ANA +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.5 – 4.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +155 Elo | NYR 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 68.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 4.61st of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.13rd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +2.42nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3243.8% | Shot share | 53.4%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3293.1% | Save percentage | 92.8%4th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–2 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 0–2 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.