Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:27Alex Ovechkin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (6), Dylan Strome (10)3–6
- P34:57Aliaksei Protas Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (5), Dylan Strome (9)3–5
- P34:21Connor McMichael Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (6), Tom Wilson (2)3–4
- P218:00Nick Suzuki Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: David Savard (4), Lane Hutson (7)3–3
- P212:39Jakub Vrana Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none2–3
- P211:45Brandon Duhaime Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (2), Trevor van Riemsdyk (5)2–2
- P210:31Brendan Gallagher Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (6), Christian Dvorak (3)2–1
- P29:52Cole Caufield Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (9)1–1
- P23:21Tom Wilson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Alex Ovechkin (4), John Carlson (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:31Brendan Gallagher Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (6), Christian Dvorak (3)MTL 2 – 1 WSH · MTL 38% → 59% +21MTL 38% → 59%+21 pts
- P211:45Brandon Duhaime Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (2), Trevor van Riemsdyk (5)MTL 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 41% → 62% +21WSH 41% → 62%+21 pts
- P212:39Jakub Vrana Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneMTL 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 62% → 80% +18WSH 62% → 80%+18 pts
- P218:00Nick Suzuki Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: David Savard (4), Lane Hutson (7)MTL 3 – 3 WSH · MTL 19% → 40% +20MTL 19% → 40%+20 pts
- P34:21Connor McMichael Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (6), Tom Wilson (2)MTL 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 59% → 83% +24WSH 59% → 83%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 67%
- ML MTL +190 / WSH -225
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 62.9%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- WSH -201
- MTL +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −1 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +92 Elo | WSH 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 60.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.97th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.1 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.2 | Margin | +0.99th of 32 |
| 30th of 3244.3% | Shot share | 55.3%4th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 88.5%24th of 32 |
| 21st of 321–2 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | — | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.