Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- John CarlsonGoals1
- Connor McMichaelAssists2
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:07Jakob Chychrun Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (1), Jakub Vrana (1)4–1
- P31:38John Carlson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (5), Dylan Strome (5)3–1
- P30:34
Travis Sanheim Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (1), Matvei Michkov (3)2–1 - P115:07Andrew Mangiapane Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (4)2–0
- P13:49Nic Dowd Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Martin Fehervary (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:49Nic Dowd Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Martin Fehervary (1)WSH 1 – 0 PHI · WSH 43% → 58% +15WSH 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P115:07Andrew Mangiapane Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (4)WSH 2 – 0 PHI · WSH 61% → 75% +15WSH 61% → 75%+15 pts
- P30:34Travis Sanheim Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (1), Matvei Michkov (3)WSH 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 12% → 29% +18PHI 12% → 29%+18 pts
- P31:38John Carlson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (5), Dylan Strome (5)WSH 3 – 1 PHI · WSH 71% → 89% +18WSH 71% → 89%+18 pts
- P314:07Jakob Chychrun Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Duhaime (1), Jakub Vrana (1)WSH 4 – 1 PHI · WSH 99% → >99% +1WSH 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML WSH +125 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- WSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +12 Elo | PHI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 4.228th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −1.629th of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 50.3%18th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 86.6%29th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 0–128th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.