Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints2
Flyers- Garnet HathawayAssists1
- Nicolas DeslauriersPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:17Travis Konecny Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (5), Travis Sanheim (2)4–3
- P317:48Travis Sanheim Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (3), Nicolas Deslauriers (1)4–2
- P216:01Jake Evans Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (1), David Savard (3)4–1
- P212:48Cole Caufield Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (8), Mike Matheson (8)3–1
- P24:48Brendan Gallagher Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Logan Mailloux (1), Josh Anderson (3)2–1
- P117:24Travis Sanheim Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (4), Garnet Hathaway (4)1–1
- P110:42Nick Suzuki Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (4), Jayden Struble (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:42Nick Suzuki Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (4), Jayden Struble (1)MTL 1 – 0 PHI · MTL 40% → 56% +16MTL 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P117:24Travis Sanheim Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (4), Garnet Hathaway (4)MTL 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 43% → 60% +17PHI 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P24:48Brendan Gallagher Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Logan Mailloux (1), Josh Anderson (3)MTL 2 – 1 PHI · MTL 41% → 60% +19MTL 41% → 60%+19 pts
- P212:48Cole Caufield Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (8), Mike Matheson (8)MTL 3 – 1 PHI · MTL 64% → 81% +18MTL 64% → 81%+18 pts
- P216:01Jake Evans Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (1), David Savard (3)MTL 4 – 1 PHI · MTL 83% → 94% +10MTL 83% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML MTL +150 / PHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -159
- MTL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +7 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · PHI: Aleksei Kolosov (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +92 Elo | PHI 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 4.532nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −1.531st of 32 |
| 31st of 3242.6% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 85.5%32nd of 32 |
| 30th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.