St. Louis Blues at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Ryan SuterAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints1
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Jake EvansPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:49Joel Armia Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (2), Jake Evans (3)2–5
- P35:19Cole Caufield Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (7), Lane Hutson (5)2–4
- P214:04Alex Newhook Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (3), Mike Matheson (7)2–3
- P24:02Jake Neighbours Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (2), Brayden Schenn (3)2–2
- P21:33Colton Parayko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (2), Ryan Suter (1)1–2
- P21:12Kirby Dach Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (6), Mike Matheson (6)0–2
- P18:34Jake Evans Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (3), David Savard (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:34Jake Evans Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (3), David Savard (2)STL 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 46% → 62% +16MTL 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P21:33Colton Parayko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (2), Ryan Suter (1)STL 1 – 2 MTL · STL 20% → 36% +15STL 20% → 36%+15 pts
- P24:02Jake Neighbours Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (2), Brayden Schenn (3)STL 2 – 2 MTL · STL 35% → 53% +18STL 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P214:04Alex Newhook Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (3), Mike Matheson (7)STL 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 47% → 69% +21MTL 47% → 69%+21 pts
- P35:19Cole Caufield Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (7), Lane Hutson (5)STL 2 – 4 MTL · MTL 75% → 92% +17MTL 75% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML STL -130 / MTL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- STL: Elo 53.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 2.6 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +24 Elo | STL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 4.028th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −1.430th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 42.2%31st of 32 |
| 5th of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%14th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–0 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.