Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals2
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Marcus FolignoPoints2
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals3
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Sean CouturierPoints5
Scoring summary
- P319:00Sean Couturier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (1), Travis Sanheim (1)5–7
- P317:36Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Sean Couturier (3), Travis Konecny (5)5–6
- P313:28Jake Middleton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–5
- P38:26Sean Couturier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (4), Nick Seeler (1)4–5
- P34:55Travis Konecny Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (4), Owen Tippett (4)4–4
- P32:18Marcus Foligno Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Zach Bogosian (2), Jonas Brodin (5)4–3
- P219:56Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (11), Matt Boldy (7)3–3
- P218:16Matvei Michkov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (2), Owen Tippett (3)2–3
- P215:27Marcus Foligno Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (1)2–2
- P214:54Brock Faber Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (10), Joel Eriksson Ek (2)1–2
- P13:51Nick Seeler Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (3), Matvei Michkov (5)0–2
- P11:18Sean Couturier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (1), Travis Konecny (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P32:18Marcus Foligno Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Zach Bogosian (2), Jonas Brodin (5)MIN 4 – 3 PHI · MIN 52% → 77% +24MIN 52% → 77%+24 pts
- P34:55Travis Konecny Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (4), Owen Tippett (4)MIN 4 – 4 PHI · PHI 22% → 48% +26PHI 22% → 48%+26 pts
- P38:26Sean Couturier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (4), Nick Seeler (1)MIN 4 – 5 PHI · PHI 48% → 78% +30PHI 48% → 78%+30 pts
- P313:28Jake Middleton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 5 – 5 PHI · MIN 14% → 51% +37MIN 14% → 51%+37 pts
- P317:36Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Sean Couturier (3), Travis Konecny (5)MIN 5 – 6 PHI · PHI 49% → 96% +47PHI 49% → 96%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML MIN -130 / PHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 2.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +1 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +31 Elo | MIN 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.429th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.0 | Goals allowed | 4.432nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.4 | Margin | −2.031st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.2% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3293.7% | Save percentage | 86.1%31st of 32 |
| 4th of 324–1 | Road vs home | 0–230th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–2 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.