Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nick PerbixAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:26Kirill Kaprizov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (1), Jake Middleton (4)4–2
- P30:54Matt Boldy Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (4), Kirill Kaprizov (9)3–2
- P218:22Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (1), Matt Boldy (6)2–2
- P211:31Nikita Kucherov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (5), Nick Perbix (3)1–2
- P28:55Brandon Hagel Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (8), Erik Cernak (3)1–1
- P16:23Kirill Kaprizov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (4), Jonas Brodin (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:23Kirill Kaprizov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (4), Jonas Brodin (4)MIN 1 – 0 TB · MIN 40% → 55% +15MIN 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P28:55Brandon Hagel Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (8), Erik Cernak (3)MIN 1 – 1 TB · TB 38% → 58% +20TB 38% → 58%+20 pts
- P211:31Nikita Kucherov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (5), Nick Perbix (3)MIN 1 – 2 TB · TB 57% → 76% +19TB 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P218:22Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (1), Matt Boldy (6)MIN 2 – 2 TB · MIN 22% → 44% +21MIN 22% → 44%+21 pts
- P30:54Matt Boldy Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (4), Kirill Kaprizov (9)MIN 3 – 2 TB · MIN 44% → 69% +25MIN 44% → 69%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML MIN +145 / TB -170
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- TB: Elo 59.9%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -154
- MIN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −1 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +70 Elo | TB 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 4.33rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.0 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.3 | Margin | +1.08th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.1% | Shot share | 51.5%12th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3293.9% | Save percentage | 87.9%25th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.