Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Jamie DrysdaleAssists2
- Owen TippettPoints2
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:50Alex Ovechkin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (6)3–6
- P317:48Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P36:36Matvei Michkov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (2), Jamie Drysdale (2)3–4
- P216:16Owen Tippett Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Egor Zamula (2), Tyson Foerster (1)2–4
- P212:04Travis Konecny Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (4), Jamie Drysdale (1)1–4
- P27:16Connor McMichael Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (3), Pierre-Luc Dubois (4)0–4
- P24:04Connor McMichael Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (3), Dylan McIlrath (2)0–3
- P22:49Nic Dowd Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (2), Aliaksei Protas (3)0–2
- P14:50Taylor Raddysh Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Dylan McIlrath (1), Rasmus Sandin (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:50Taylor Raddysh Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Dylan McIlrath (1), Rasmus Sandin (1)PHI 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 57% → 71% +14WSH 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P22:49Nic Dowd Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (2), Aliaksei Protas (3)PHI 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 73% → 86% +13WSH 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P24:04Connor McMichael Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (3), Dylan McIlrath (2)PHI 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 86% → 94% +8WSH 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P216:16Owen Tippett Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Egor Zamula (2), Tyson Foerster (1)PHI 2 – 4 WSH · PHI 3% → 10% +7PHI 3% → 10%+7 pts
- P36:36Matvei Michkov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (2), Jamie Drysdale (2)PHI 3 – 4 WSH · PHI 5% → 20% +14PHI 5% → 20%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML PHI +125 / WSH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 64.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -133
- PHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | WSH and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −26 | +5 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.64 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +100 Elo | WSH 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 4.05th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.2 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.8 | Margin | +1.06th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.7% | Shot share | 52.5%8th of 32 |
| 30th of 3286.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%20th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–4 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–3 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.