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New York Rangers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast

FinalESPN

Away

Rangers

6-2-1

3–5

at

Home

Capitals

6-2-0

NYR 59%WSH 41%

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Capital One Arena · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.

WSH favored NYR favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3WSH50%NYR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
Capitals

Scoring summary

  • P319:24Nic Dowd Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (5)3–5
  • P24:44Filip Chytil Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Victor Mancini (3), Braden Schneider (2)3–4
  • P24:30Aliaksei Protas Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (4), Trevor van Riemsdyk (4)2–4
  • P20:30Chris Kreider Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Mika Zibanejad (5), Vincent Trocheck (6)2–3
  • P18:58Connor McMichael Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Taylor Raddysh (1), Rasmus Sandin (3)1–3
  • P15:10Alex Ovechkin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (5), Dylan Strome (8)1–2
  • P14:21Will Cuylle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (6)1–1
  • P13:23Alex Ovechkin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (7), Aliaksei Protas (4)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P14:21Will Cuylle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (6)NYR 1 – 1 WSH · NYR 43% → 59% +15
  2. P15:10Alex Ovechkin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (5), Dylan Strome (8)NYR 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 42% → 57% +15
  3. P20:30Chris Kreider Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Mika Zibanejad (5), Vincent Trocheck (6)NYR 2 – 3 WSH · NYR 24% → 39% +16
  4. P24:30Aliaksei Protas Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (4), Trevor van Riemsdyk (4)NYR 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 62% → 78% +16
  5. P24:44Filip Chytil Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Victor Mancini (3), Braden Schneider (2)NYR 3 – 4 WSH · NYR 22% → 38% +16

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Rangers 59%

LeanMiss
NYR 59%WSH 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
NYR 59%
ML NYR -155 / WSH +135
Pre-line forecast
NYR 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYR 54%
Ratings vs. market
−4.4 pts
NYR: Elo 54.5%, market 58.8%
Fair odds
NYR -143
WSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYR 3.0 – 2.5 WSH
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYRWSHWhy
Team rating15631494Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2+5NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYR +31 EloNYR 54.5%
Market-implied ratingsNYR 55.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYR 55.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYR 58.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
New York Rangers and Washington Capitals compared, with each team's league rank
NYRStatWSH
3rd of 324.3Goals scored3.78th of 32
2nd of 322.0Goals allowed3.010th of 32
1st of 32+2.3Margin+0.79th of 32
7th of 3252.9%Shot share52.7%8th of 32
2nd of 3293.3%Save percentage89.0%21st of 32
1st of 324–0Road vs home3–16th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersCapitals
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYRWSH
Puck line5–35–2
Last 105–35–2
Favorite4–31–0
Underdog1–04–2
Overs–unders3–54–3
Overs–unders, last 103–54–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYR 6–2 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.