Seattle Kraken at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Brandon MontourGoals3
- Chandler StephensonAssists4
- Brandon MontourPoints4
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists1
- Josh AndersonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:28Josh Anderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (9), Jayden Struble (2)8–2
- P315:14Eeli Tolvanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Joshua Mahura (1), Matty Beniers (4)8–1
- P314:12Brandon Montour Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (9), Chandler Stephenson (7)7–1
- P28:44Brandon Montour Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (3), Jaden Schwartz (5)6–1
- P21:32Brandon Montour Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (2), Chandler Stephenson (6)5–1
- P116:11Cole Caufield Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (6), Logan Mailloux (2)4–1
- P110:33Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (4)4–0
- P17:27Jaden Schwartz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (5), Brandon Montour (5)3–0
- P13:49Ryker Evans Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (3), Jared McCann (8)2–0
- P10:25Jamie Oleksiak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (6), Chandler Stephenson (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:25Jamie Oleksiak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (6), Chandler Stephenson (4)SEA 1 – 0 MTL · SEA 61% → 74% +13SEA 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P13:49Ryker Evans Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (3), Jared McCann (8)SEA 2 – 0 MTL · SEA 74% → 85% +11SEA 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P17:27Jaden Schwartz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (5), Brandon Montour (5)SEA 3 – 0 MTL · SEA 85% → 93% +7SEA 85% → 93%+7 pts
- P110:33Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (4)SEA 4 – 0 MTL · SEA 93% → 97% +4SEA 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P116:11Cole Caufield Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (6), Logan Mailloux (2)SEA 4 – 1 MTL · MTL 3% → 6% +4MTL 3% → 6%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML SEA -175 / MTL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -159
- MTL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.6 – 2.9 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +15 Elo | MTL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.726th of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.725th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 43.1%31st of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%12th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | — |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–2 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.