Carolina Hurricanes at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Dmitry OrlovGoals1
- Jordan MartinookAssists1
- Dmitry OrlovPoints1
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:24Dmitry Orlov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P315:38Seth Jarvis Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jordan Martinook (2), Jaccob Slavin (3)3–1
- P310:21Jared McCann Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (3)2–1
- P216:49Jack Drury Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jackson Blake (1), Brent Burns (2)2–0
- P14:25Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (6), Seth Jarvis (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:25Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (6), Seth Jarvis (3)CAR 1 – 0 SEA · CAR 63% → 76% +13CAR 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P216:49Jack Drury Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jackson Blake (1), Brent Burns (2)CAR 2 – 0 SEA · CAR 79% → 92% +13CAR 79% → 92%+13 pts
- P310:21Jared McCann Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (3)CAR 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 3% → 15% +12SEA 3% → 15%+12 pts
- P315:38Seth Jarvis Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jordan Martinook (2), Jaccob Slavin (3)CAR 3 – 1 SEA · CAR 93% → >99% +7CAR 93% → >99%+7 pts
- P318:24Dmitry Orlov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 4 – 1 SEA · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 63%
- ML CAR -190 / SEA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- CAR: Elo 55.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -170
- SEA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 2.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +38 Elo | CAR 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.08th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.1% | Shot share | 50.7%16th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 89.6%17th of 32 |
| 3rd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.