Chicago Blackhawks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Connor MurphyAssists2
- Connor MurphyPoints2
Sharks- Will SmithGoals2
- Will SmithPoints2
Scoring summary
- P210:42Will Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P21:30Alexander Wennberg Goal (2) Poke, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (2), Jake Walman (8)2–2
- P18:19Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (6), Taylor Hall (2)2–1
- P17:29Ryan Donato Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (1), Connor Murphy (5)1–1
- P16:52Will Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (2), Cody Ceci (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:52Will Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (2), Cody Ceci (2)CHI 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 41% → 56% +15SJ 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P17:29Ryan Donato Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (1), Connor Murphy (5)CHI 1 – 1 SJ · CHI 44% → 59% +15CHI 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P18:19Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (6), Taylor Hall (2)CHI 2 – 1 SJ · CHI 59% → 73% +14CHI 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P21:30Alexander Wennberg Goal (2) Poke, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (2), Jake Walman (8)CHI 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 26% → 42% +16SJ 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P210:42Will Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 43% → 64% +21SJ 43% → 64%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blackhawks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CHI 60%
- ML CHI -165 / SJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- CHI: Elo 50.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHI -149
- SJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1396 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −7 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI 0 Elo | CHI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.528th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 4.130th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.6 | Margin | −1.632nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 46.0%28th of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.4%23rd of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 1–329th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | — |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–0 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.