Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals2
- Jason DickinsonAssists2
- Ryan DonatoPoints3
Avalanche- Logan O'ConnorAssists1
- Logan O'ConnorPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41Ilya Mikheyev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (1), Jason Dickinson (3)5–2
- P319:02Ryan Donato Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P119:17Nathan MacKinnon Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (14), Alexandar Georgiev (1)3–2
- P116:56Ryan Donato Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jason Dickinson (2), Connor Murphy (4)3–1
- P111:04Lukas Reichel Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Craig Smith (2)2–1
- P110:16Casey Mittelstadt Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (1), Sam Malinski (3)1–1
- P18:47Philipp Kurashev Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:47Philipp Kurashev Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (5)CHI 1 – 0 COL · CHI 38% → 54% +16CHI 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P110:16Casey Mittelstadt Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (1), Sam Malinski (3)CHI 1 – 1 COL · COL 46% → 62% +16COL 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P111:04Lukas Reichel Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Craig Smith (2)CHI 2 – 1 COL · CHI 38% → 54% +16CHI 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P116:56Ryan Donato Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jason Dickinson (2), Connor Murphy (4)CHI 3 – 1 COL · CHI 56% → 72% +16CHI 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P119:17Nathan MacKinnon Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (14), Alexandar Georgiev (1)CHI 3 – 2 COL · COL 27% → 43% +16COL 27% → 43%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 63%
- ML CHI +160 / COL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- COL: Elo 64.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -170
- CHI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −18 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +103 Elo | COL 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 66.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.4 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 4.029th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 54.2%5th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 86.1%31st of 32 |
| 28th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–3 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.