Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals2
- Nick CousinsAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints2
Avalanche- Josh MansonGoals1
- Samuel GirardAssists2
- Samuel GirardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:50Claude Giroux Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (4), Brady Tkachuk (7)4–5
- P318:45Nathan MacKinnon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (10)3–5
- P316:48Claude Giroux Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (5), Thomas Chabot (3)3–4
- P315:01Ross Colton Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (13)2–4
- P313:29Logan O'Connor Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (7), Samuel Girard (5)2–3
- P311:23Nick Cousins Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (6), Tim Stützle (7)2–2
- P39:15Brady Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (1), Nick Cousins (1)1–2
- P219:42Josh Manson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (6), Samuel Girard (4)0–2
- P119:52Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (5), Nathan MacKinnon (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:52Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (5), Nathan MacKinnon (11)OTT 0 – 1 COL · COL 59% → 75% +16COL 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P219:42Josh Manson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (6), Samuel Girard (4)OTT 0 – 2 COL · COL 79% → 92% +14COL 79% → 92%+14 pts
- P39:15Brady Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Kleven (1), Nick Cousins (1)OTT 1 – 2 COL · OTT 3% → 16% +13OTT 3% → 16%+13 pts
- P311:23Nick Cousins Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (6), Tim Stützle (7)OTT 2 – 2 COL · OTT 14% → 46% +31OTT 14% → 46%+31 pts
- P313:29Logan O'Connor Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (7), Samuel Girard (5)OTT 2 – 3 COL · COL 54% → 89% +35COL 54% → 89%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML OTT +150 / COL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- COL: Elo 63.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -159
- OTT +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +22 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.56 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +98 Elo | COL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.69th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 4.029th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 32 |
| 15th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 86.1%31st of 32 |
| 21st of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–4 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 0–2 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.