Ottawa Senators at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Nick JensenAssists2
- Nick JensenPoints2
Utah HCScoring summary
- P119:52Brady Tkachuk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (2), Tim Stützle (5)4–0
- P118:05Ridly Greig Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none3–0
- P113:06Claude Giroux Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (4)2–0
- P111:43Drake Batherson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (3), Nick Jensen (3)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:43Drake Batherson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (3), Nick Jensen (3)OTT 1 – 0 UTAH · OTT 50% → 66% +16OTT 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P113:06Claude Giroux Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (4)OTT 2 – 0 UTAH · OTT 66% → 80% +14OTT 66% → 80%+14 pts
- P118:05Ridly Greig Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 0 UTAH · OTT 81% → 90% +10OTT 81% → 90%+10 pts
- P119:52Brady Tkachuk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (2), Tim Stützle (5)OTT 4 – 0 UTAH · OTT 91% → 96% +5OTT 91% → 96%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 50%
- ML OTT -110 / UTAH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- UTAH: Elo 57.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -100
- OTT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.3 – 3.3 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −4 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +50 Elo | UTAH 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.78th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.316th of 32 |
| 15th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 47.9%23rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 88.6%22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–3 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.