Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Adam GaudetteGoals2
- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Adam GaudettePoints2
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals2
- Alex PietrangeloAssists3
- Alex PietrangeloPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:14Ivan Barbashev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (11), Mark Stone (11)4–6
- P317:49Keegan Kolesar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (4), Alex Pietrangelo (9)4–5
- P316:49Tomas Hertl Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (10), Jack Eichel (10)4–4
- P217:44Adam Gaudette Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (4), Tim Stützle (6)4–3
- P26:40Ivan Barbashev Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (8), Noah Hanifin (3)3–3
- P118:34Drake Batherson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P117:44Nicolas Hague Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (1)2–2
- P117:23Nicolas Roy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (3), Alex Pietrangelo (7)2–1
- P112:15Claude Giroux Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (5), Drake Batherson (4)2–0
- P12:40Adam Gaudette Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Reinhardt (1), Jacob Bernard-Docker (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:34Drake Batherson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 2 VGK · OTT 47% → 64% +17OTT 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P26:40Ivan Barbashev Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (8), Noah Hanifin (3)OTT 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 33% → 52% +19VGK 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P217:44Adam Gaudette Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (4), Tim Stützle (6)OTT 4 – 3 VGK · OTT 48% → 71% +23OTT 48% → 71%+23 pts
- P316:49Tomas Hertl Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (10), Jack Eichel (10)OTT 4 – 4 VGK · VGK 6% → 51% +45VGK 6% → 51%+45 pts
- P317:49Keegan Kolesar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (4), Alex Pietrangelo (9)OTT 4 – 5 VGK · VGK 51% → 97% +47VGK 51% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 53%
- ML OTT +105 / VGK -125
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 55.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -114
- OTT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.2 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +20 | −3 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.50 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +37 Elo | VGK 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 4.14th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +1.16th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 47.5%24th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%13th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.