Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Warren FoegeleGoals1
- Jordan SpenceAssists1
- Warren FoegelePoints1
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals2
- Alex PietrangeloAssists3
- Tomas HertlPoints4
Scoring summary
- P313:25Ivan Barbashev Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (9), Alex Pietrangelo (6)1–6
- P38:26Tomas Hertl Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (5), Pavel Dorofeyev (1)1–5
- P32:59Alexander Holtz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (4)1–4
- P219:07Warren Foegele Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (2), Jordan Spence (3)1–3
- P115:12Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (4), Kaedan Korczak (1)0–3
- P113:51Mark Stone Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tomas Hertl (3), Noah Hanifin (2)0–2
- P19:07Tomas Hertl Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (8), Jack Eichel (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:07Tomas Hertl Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (8), Jack Eichel (9)LA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 53% → 68% +15VGK 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P113:51Mark Stone Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tomas Hertl (3), Noah Hanifin (2)LA 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 69% → 82% +13VGK 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P115:12Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (4), Kaedan Korczak (1)LA 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 82% → 91% +9VGK 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P219:07Warren Foegele Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (2), Jordan Spence (3)LA 1 – 3 VGK · LA 3% → 10% +7LA 3% → 10%+7 pts
- P32:59Alexander Holtz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (4)LA 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 92% → 98% +6VGK 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 53%
- ML LA +105 / VGK -125
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 53.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -114
- LA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.7 – 2.8 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −6 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +26 Elo | VGK 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.87th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 47.7%23rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 88.4%24th of 32 |
| 13th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–2 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.