Colorado Avalanche at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Joel KivirantaGoals1
- Sam MalinskiAssists1
- Ross ColtonPoints1
Utah HC- Lawson CrouseGoals1
- Ian ColeAssists1
- Lawson CrousePoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:07Joel Kiviranta Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none5–1
- P315:28Lawson Crouse Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Matias Maccelli (4), Ian Cole (2)4–1
- P217:33Ivan Ivan Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (10), Casey Mittelstadt (4)4–0
- P214:25Casey Mittelstadt Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (2), Nikolai Kovalenko (3)3–0
- P118:20Cale Makar Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (9), Nikolai Kovalenko (2)2–0
- P19:54Ross Colton Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (8), Casey Mittelstadt (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:54Ross Colton Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (8), Casey Mittelstadt (3)COL 1 – 0 UTAH · COL 57% → 72% +15COL 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P118:20Cale Makar Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (9), Nikolai Kovalenko (2)COL 2 – 0 UTAH · COL 73% → 85% +12COL 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P214:25Casey Mittelstadt Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (2), Nikolai Kovalenko (3)COL 3 – 0 UTAH · COL 89% → 96% +7COL 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P217:33Ivan Ivan Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (10), Casey Mittelstadt (4)COL 4 – 0 UTAH · COL 97% → >99% +2COL 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P315:28Lawson Crouse Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Matias Maccelli (4), Ian Cole (2)COL 4 – 1 UTAH · UTAH <1% → <1% +0UTAH <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 58%
- ML COL -150 / UTAH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- COL: Elo 51.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -138
- UTAH +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +21 | +3 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.53 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +12 Elo | COL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.4 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 5th of 3255.1% | Shot share | 49.4%21st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3284.6% | Save percentage | 87.8%26th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 1–6 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 1–6 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.