Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Pat MaroonAssists2
- Pat MaroonPoints2
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals2
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:42Matt Duchene Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Tyler Seguin (4)2–4
- P314:15Connor Bedard Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (3), Nolan Allan (2)2–3
- P39:34Ryan Donato Goal (3) Poke, assists: Craig Smith (1), Patrick Maroon (2)1–3
- P38:50Matt Duchene Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (8), Miro Heiskanen (3)0–3
- P214:42Jamie Benn Goal (2) Batted, assists: Miro Heiskanen (2), Thomas Harley (4)0–2
- P19:17Evgenii Dadonov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:17Evgenii Dadonov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (1)CHI 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 73% → 84% +11DAL 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P214:42Jamie Benn Goal (2) Batted, assists: Miro Heiskanen (2), Thomas Harley (4)CHI 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 84% → 94% +10DAL 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P38:50Matt Duchene Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (8), Miro Heiskanen (3)CHI 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 98% → >99% +2DAL 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P39:34Ryan Donato Goal (3) Poke, assists: Craig Smith (1), Patrick Maroon (2)CHI 1 – 3 DAL · CHI <1% → 2% +2CHI <1% → 2%+2 pts
- P314:15Connor Bedard Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (3), Nolan Allan (2)CHI 2 – 3 DAL · CHI <1% → 8% +8CHI <1% → 8%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 75%
- ML CHI +280 / DAL -360
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 76.6%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- DAL -297
- CHI +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 4.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +206 Elo | DAL 76.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 75.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 1.91st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +1.33rd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 93.9%1st of 32 |
| 25th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.