Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Akil ThomasGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Akil ThomasPoints1
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:22William Eklund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (1), Mario Ferraro (2)2–4
- P311:02Tyler Toffoli Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jake Walman (7)2–3
- P38:52Alex Laferriere Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (1)2–2
- P36:25Fabian Zetterlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (4), Jake Walman (6)1–2
- P23:18Akil Thomas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (7), Trevor Moore (2)1–1
- P22:20Jake Walman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (2), Carl Grundstrom (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:20Jake Walman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (2), Carl Grundstrom (2)LA 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 31% → 49% +18SJ 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P23:18Akil Thomas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (7), Trevor Moore (2)LA 1 – 1 SJ · LA 51% → 69% +18LA 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P36:25Fabian Zetterlund Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (4), Jake Walman (6)LA 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 38% → 68% +30SJ 38% → 68%+30 pts
- P38:52Alex Laferriere Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (1)LA 2 – 2 SJ · LA 28% → 61% +32LA 28% → 61%+32 pts
- P311:02Tyler Toffoli Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jake Walman (7)LA 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 41% → 76% +35SJ 41% → 76%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- LA 73%
- ML LA -320 / SJ +260
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- LA: Elo 65.9%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -274
- SJ +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 4.0 – 2.5 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +115 Elo | LA 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 68.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.331st of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 4.331st of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −2.032nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 46.2%28th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 88.0%28th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 0–332nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | — |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–1 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.