San Jose Sharks at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Utah HC- Matias MaccelliGoals2
- Ian ColeAssists2
- Matias MaccelliPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:26Alexander Wennberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (8), Tyler Toffoli (4)5–4
- P317:18Tyler Toffoli Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Walman (5), Alexander Wennberg (3)4–4
- P315:53Mikael Granlund Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Walman (4), William Eklund (6)3–4
- P315:28Fabian Zetterlund Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Granlund (7), Jake Walman (3)2–4
- P219:36Mikhail Sergachev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Kolyachonok (3), Logan Cooley (7)1–4
- P210:38Matias Maccelli Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ian Cole (4), Vladislav Kolyachonok (2)1–3
- P29:12Fabian Zetterlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Danil Gushchin (1), Henry Thrun (1)1–2
- P116:24Matias Maccelli Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ian Cole (3), Nick Schmaltz (9)0–2
- P111:00Dylan Guenther Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:00Dylan Guenther Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (5)SJ 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 68% → 81% +13UTAH 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P29:12Fabian Zetterlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Danil Gushchin (1), Henry Thrun (1)SJ 1 – 2 UTAH · SJ 8% → 19% +11SJ 8% → 19%+11 pts
- P210:38Matias Maccelli Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ian Cole (4), Vladislav Kolyachonok (2)SJ 1 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 81% → 92% +11UTAH 81% → 92%+11 pts
- P317:18Tyler Toffoli Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Walman (5), Alexander Wennberg (3)SJ 4 – 4 UTAH · SJ 3% → 46% +42SJ 3% → 46%+42 pts
- OT1:26Alexander Wennberg Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (8), Tyler Toffoli (4)SJ 5 – 4 UTAH · SJ 45% → 91% +47SJ 45% → 91%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 70%
- ML SJ +220 / UTAH -270
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- UTAH: Elo 69.3%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -234
- SJ +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.7 – 3.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −5 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +141 Elo | UTAH 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 68.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.0 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.3 | Goals allowed | 3.624th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−2.3 | Margin | −0.826th of 32 |
| 30th of 3243.6% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 87.0%30th of 32 |
| 31st of 320–6 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.