San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mario FerraroAssists1
- Mario FerraroPoints1
Golden Knights- Brett HowdenGoals2
- Pavel DorofeyevAssists2
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:07Brett Howden Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (3), Tomas Hertl (6)3–7
- P313:29Luke Kunin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (1)3–6
- P311:10Mark Stone Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (12), Ivan Barbashev (5)2–6
- P219:41Nico Sturm Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P219:26Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (7), Mark Stone (13)1–5
- P211:10William Karlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (11)1–4
- P210:13Mikael Granlund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (5), Mario Ferraro (1)1–3
- P116:46Brett Howden Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (5), Pavel Dorofeyev (2)0–3
- P13:47Jack Eichel Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (12), Alex Pietrangelo (10)0–2
- P11:57Tanner Pearson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (1), Alexander Holtz (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:57Tanner Pearson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (1), Alexander Holtz (2)SJ 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 73% → 84% +11VGK 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P13:47Jack Eichel Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (12), Alex Pietrangelo (10)SJ 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 84% → 91% +8VGK 84% → 91%+8 pts
- P116:46Brett Howden Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (5), Pavel Dorofeyev (2)SJ 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 92% → 97% +5VGK 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P210:13Mikael Granlund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (5), Mario Ferraro (1)SJ 1 – 3 VGK · SJ 2% → 7% +5SJ 2% → 7%+5 pts
- P211:10William Karlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (11)SJ 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 93% → 98% +5VGK 93% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 73%
- ML SJ +260 / VGK -320
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 67.5%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -274
- SJ +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.0 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −2 | SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +127 Elo | VGK 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 67.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 321.9 | Goals scored | 4.42nd of 32 |
| 29th of 324.0 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−2.1 | Margin | +1.34th of 32 |
| 30th of 3244.4% | Shot share | 46.7%27th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%13th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–5 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | — | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–4 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.