San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Alexander WennbergAssists2
- Alexander WennbergPoints2
Kings- Warren FoegeleGoals2
- Alex LaferriereAssists2
- Warren FoegelePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Mikael Granlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Thompson (3), Alexander Wennberg (2)2–3
- P210:05Mikael Granlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Thompson (2), Alexander Wennberg (1)1–3
- P111:36Warren Foegele Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Alex Laferriere (3), Brandt Clarke (5)0–3
- P18:47Warren Foegele Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alex Laferriere (2)0–2
- P14:31Jordan Spence Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (1), Phillip Danault (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:31Jordan Spence Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (1), Phillip Danault (3)SJ 0 – 1 LA · LA 72% → 84% +11LA 72% → 84%+11 pts
- P18:47Warren Foegele Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alex Laferriere (2)SJ 0 – 2 LA · LA 83% → 91% +8LA 83% → 91%+8 pts
- P111:36Warren Foegele Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Alex Laferriere (3), Brandt Clarke (5)SJ 0 – 3 LA · LA 91% → 96% +5LA 91% → 96%+5 pts
- P210:05Mikael Granlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Thompson (2), Alexander Wennberg (1)SJ 1 – 3 LA · SJ 2% → 7% +5SJ 2% → 7%+5 pts
- P319:00Mikael Granlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Thompson (3), Alexander Wennberg (2)SJ 2 – 3 LA · SJ <1% → <1% +0SJ <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- LA 73%
- ML SJ +260 / LA -320
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- LA: Elo 71.4%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -274
- SJ +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.0 – 3.5 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +3 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +159 Elo | LA 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 71.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 321.9 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.1 | Goals allowed | 3.623rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−2.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3244.1% | Shot share | 52.8%8th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 87.3%28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | — | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–3 LA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.