Utah Hockey Club at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Dylan GuentherAssists1
- Clayton KellerPoints1
Kings- Joel EdmundsonGoals2
- Brandt ClarkeAssists1
- Joel EdmundsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:47Logan Cooley Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Michael Kesselring (3), Dylan Guenther (2)2–3
- P31:09Joel Edmundson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (5), Brandt Clarke (6)1–3
- P215:55Clayton Keller Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (5), Nick Schmaltz (8)1–2
- P213:10Joel Edmundson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (6), Quinton Byfield (4)0–2
- P27:51Brandt Clarke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (4), Kevin Fiala (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:51Brandt Clarke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (4), Kevin Fiala (2)UTAH 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 74% +18LA 55% → 74%+18 pts
- P213:10Joel Edmundson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (6), Quinton Byfield (4)UTAH 0 – 2 LA · LA 75% → 89% +14LA 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P215:55Clayton Keller Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (5), Nick Schmaltz (8)UTAH 1 – 2 LA · UTAH 10% → 25% +14UTAH 10% → 25%+14 pts
- P31:09Joel Edmundson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (5), Brandt Clarke (6)UTAH 1 – 3 LA · LA 77% → 92% +15LA 77% → 92%+15 pts
- P39:47Logan Cooley Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Michael Kesselring (3), Dylan Guenther (2)UTAH 2 – 3 LA · UTAH 3% → 17% +14UTAH 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 57%
- ML UTAH +125 / LA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- LA: Elo 54.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -133
- UTAH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.5 – 3.0 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −26 | UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.65 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +28 Elo | LA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 52.9%8th of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.0% | Save percentage | 87.9%27th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.